美联储将基准利率下调四分之一个百分点，但暗示 2025 年降息次数会减少

美联储周三连续第三次降息，但暗示将在新的一年放慢降息步伐。《波士顿环球报》专栏作家Larry Edelman对此作了下述报道。

美联储官员在今年最后一次会议上投票决定将基准贷款利率下调四分之一个百分点，至 4.3% 左右。所谓联邦基金利率的变化会影响一系列借贷成本，包括信用卡、抵押贷款和商业贷款。

自 9 月开始放松信贷政策以来，央行行长已将主要利率下调了整整一个百分点，先是下调了半个百分点，随后在 11 月又下调了四分之一个百分点。通胀大幅下降，加上就业市场坚挺，让美联储能够灵活地降低借贷成本，因为借贷成本曾重创住房和建筑业，并抑制了低收入消费者的支出。

周三的决定引发了一场反对，与此同时，政策制定机构联邦公开市场委员会成员也做出了新的预测，他们预计基准利率到 2025 年底将降至 3.9%。这高于 9 月份预测的 3.4%。他们表示，从长远来看，利率将稳定在 3% 左右，而之前的估计为 2.9%。

美联储观察人士表示，委员会成员变得更加谨慎有几个原因：就业市场比几个月前一些政策制定者认为的更健康，通胀更持久；他们正在等待当选总统唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 经济计划的更多细节；他们尚未确定既不会过度促进也不会阻碍经济增长的理想利率水平。

波士顿学院经济学家 Brian Bethune 在利率决定公布前的一封电子邮件中表示，美联储的预测“官方默认必须基于当前的经济政策”。他说：“2025 年第一季度政策发生变化的可能性极高”，并指出特朗普提出的对加拿大和墨西哥征收 25% 的关税“将引发强有力的报复”，并可能导致经济衰退。

美联储还预测，以个人消费支出指数衡量，明年通胀率将达到 2.5%，高于之前预测的 2.1%。2025 年第四季度的平均失业率为 4.3%，而 9 月份的预测为 4.4%。

央行对经济增长的预测为 2.1%，低于 2.5%。

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将在下午 2:30 的新闻发布会上发言，预计将更详细地讨论前景。

题图：美联储结束了将利率下调一个百分点的一年。Jose Luis Magana/美联社

附原英文报道：

Fed reduces benchmark rate by a quarter point, but signals fewer cuts in 2025

The Federal Reserve reduced interest rates for a third straight time

By Larry Edelman Globe Columnist,Updated December 18, 2024

The Federal Reserve wrapped a year in which it reduced interest rates by a full percentage point.Jose Luis Magana/Associated Press

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday reduced interest rates for a third straight time but signaled it would slow the pace of cuts in the new year.

Fed officials wrapped up their last meeting of the year with a vote to lower their benchmark lending rate by a quarter of a percentage point, to about 4.3 percent. Changes in the so-called federal funds rate can influence a range of borrowing costs, including on credit cards, mortgages, and business loans.

Central bankers have decreased their main rate by a full point since they began easing credit in September with a half-point cut, followed by a quarter-point reduction in November. A sharp decline in inflation, combined with a resilient job market, has given the Fed flexibility to reduce borrowing costs from levels that have pounded housing and construction and curbed spending by low-income consumers.

Wednesday’s decision — which drew one dissent — was accompanied by new projections by members of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee showing they expect the benchmark rate to fall to 3.9 percent by the end of 2025. That’s up from a forecast of 3.4 percent in September. Over the longer run, they said the rate would settle around 3 percent, compared with a previous estimate of 2.9 percent.

Committee members have turned more cautious for several reasons, according to Fed watchers: the job market is healthier and inflation more persistent than some policy makers believed a few months ago; they are waiting for more details on President-elect Donald Trump’s economic plans; and they have yet to determine the ideal level for rates that would neither unduly boost nor hinder growth.

Fed projections “officially by default have to be based on current economic policies,” Brian Bethune, a Boston College economist, said in an email before the rate decision was announced. ”The probability that policies will change in the first quarter of 2025 are extremely high,’’ he said, noting that Trump’s proposed 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico “would induce forceful retaliation” and potentially a recession.

The Fed also projected that inflation would end next year at 2.5 percent, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, up from its previous forecast of 2.1 percent. Unemployment would average 4.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared with a 4.4 percent estimate in September.

The central bank’s forecast for economic growth next was 2.1 percent, down from 2.5 percent.

Fed chair Jerome Powell will speak at a news conference at 2:30 p.m. where he’s expected to discuss the outlook in more detail.

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